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June 30, 2008

Comments

Doug M.

Coming to this very late. (But I used to live in Serbia.)

-- There are very strong generational and class aspects to post-Yugoslav nationalism. Broadly speaking, people born between the late 1940s and the early 1960s came to adulthood during Yugoslavia's golden age, and so were much less likely to be ardent nationalists than the cohorts who were older (enough to be directly impacted by the horrors of WWII) or younger (enough to be adolescents or young adults when centrifugal nationalism came to dominate public discourse). These still hold good today; a 55 year old Serb, Croat, or Bosniak is much more likely to be moderate than a 35 year old or a 75 year old.

The class aspect was, if anything, even stronger. Broadly speaking, the nationalist "revolutions" were slow motion coups by one group of Communist elites against another. This was most obvious in Serbia, but it holds true for Croatia as well, Tudjman's time-outs notwithstanding. To a first approximation, the people who are important and powerful in the countries of the former YU today -- the dominant politicians, political bureaucrats, businessmen, and rentiers -- are either people who were already important and powerful in 1980s Yugoslavia, or their children. (There was a class of wartime arrivistes, but most of them are not around any more; see, e.g., Arkan or Legija.)

The class that got squeezed out was the intellectuals. Broadly speaking, 1980s nationalism in Yugoslavia was a case of masses with high school degrees being led by a white-collar elite with college degrees, while people with graduate degrees stood on the sidelines and wrung their hands. There were some intellectuals who jumped on board the nationalist bandwagon, of course, but many found the discourse of nationalism so stultifying that they chose to secede from active public life instead. There were honorable exceptions like the "Croatian Witches". But if you were a writer, artist or academic in 1990s Serbia or Croatia, your choice really was between "becoming a cheerleader for the regime", "destroying your career (and possibly endangering yourself and your family) by open criticism" or "shutting TF up and doing something orthogonal to the regime's interests".

I note in passing that Dasha Duhachek is in her late forties and has two advanced degrees. This isn't a criticism! She's done some great stuff. But if you look at Serbs who are offering thoughtful criticism and analysis of what happened in Serbia between 1987 and 2000, pretty soon you'll notice that most of them look a lot like Dasha -- smart, well educated, spent lots of time abroad as a young adult, and fiftyish. (To be fair, there are younger liberals -- Cedomir Jovanovic and his followers, who are more or less the kids from OTPOR ten years later. But Dasha and her like-aged cohorts still seem to dominate the discussion.)

-- Preserving the union: it's not really accurate to say that the Serbs wanted to hold Yugoslavia together. Overall they were no more (or less) pro-Yugoslav than the Croats. The two groups that really, really wanted to keep Yugoslavia together were the Bosniaks and the Kosovars, since both groups enjoyed relatively privileged positions. (The Serbs did, too, but they'd managed to convince themselves that they didn't.) During the critical period from 1987 to 1991, Serb sentiment was not "we must preserve the union", but "the union is only worth preserving if our demands are met". (In this sense, they were a lot more like Jeff Davis than like Lincoln.) You can't look at, say, the Battle of Vukovar and view it as a federal government trying to suppress insurrectionists. Yugoslavia had completely ceased to exist at that point except on paper, and the siege was a straightforward border conflict between two rival nationalisms.

By the time of that battle (spring 1991), pretty much all ethnic Serbs had given up on Yugoslavia. For the next couple of years, the widely held goal was to get the best possible deal out of the collapse -- i.e., to recreate something like the medieval Greater Serbia, with much of Bosnia and the Serb-majority parts of Croatia. By 1994 this had obviously failed, and widespread disillusionment had set in. But the point is, if you see the Serbs as the preservers of the union during the period of the breakup (1987-91), let alone during the period of active war (1991-95), you're going to get confused, because they really weren't. They were just as separatist as the other major groups.

-- Pishi kirillitsa: this is as much a desperate appeal as a command. When you say that "Latin is generally associated with noncommital cosmopolitanism, commerce, or, worse, Croat Catholicis"... well, that's half right. The other half is that it's also associated with modernity, fashion, and advanced education. The Cyrillic alphabet was firmly on the retreat in Serbia in the 1970s and 1980s; if you can find pictures of Knez Mihailova from, say, 1985, you'll notice that every single shop sign, billboard and advertisement is in the Latin alphabet. The Milosevic administration launched a heavy-handed campaign to reimpose Cyrillic (much to the annoyance of Hungarians and other non-Serb minorities), but with only partial success. The Milosevic-era language laws are still on the books today. The sillier ones are enforced only sporadically, but all official writings and signage are required to be in Cyrillic. And it's clear to everyone that if the government wasn't encouraging and to some extent enforcing the use of Cyrillic, Latin would rapidly come to dominate.

(A key difference from, say, Russian is that Serbo-Croat has a slightly modified Latin alphabet that expresses the language /exactly as well as the Cyrillic/ -- for every Cyrillic letter, there's a Latin one that expresses the same sound. Serbian doesn't use nonvocalized letters like Russian, so that's not an issue. There's no compelling practical reason to prefer one to the other, so it's purely a question of nationalist preference.)

-- Romania: Ethnic Romanian fears of Hungarian irredentism are on one hand very real, and on the other hand completely idiotic. They go back to 1918 (when Romania grabbed Transylvania from collapsing Austria-Hungary) and to 1940-44 (when Hungary temporarily grabbed it back). But the province's demographic balance has shifted dramatically since then -- Hungarians are now a small minority, scattered among a few enclaves, none of which are contiguous with Hungary. Meanwhile the ethnic Germans (who were the Hungarians' partners in running the province) have almost completely disappeared. So Romanian fears are just deeply irrational and stupid; successful Hungarian irredentism is about as likely as the Sioux taking back South Dakota. Unfortunately, Romanian popular historiography likes to paint modern Romanian history as a death struggle against Hungarian oppression, and Romanian politicians like to play on this.

That said, I'd disagree that "burgeoning irredentist movements in the Balkans... must be shown how to hope for membership in a transnational union". With the two exceptions of northern Kosovo and Bosnia, pretty much all the irredentist movements in the Balkans are settled now: either they've already won, or they're obviously never going to. Absent those two, there's nothing in the region that cries out for an adjustment of the current borders.

-- As to Kosovo: on one hand, Rice and other American politicians are obviously talking nonsense when they say that Kosovo is "unique"; it isn't. On the other, foes of Kosovo's independence were just as obviously wrong to claim that it would embolden other independence movements around the world; it hasn't.

-- Finally, as to Serbian collective guilt: I don't believe in collective guilt. But Serbian society is still in deep, deep denial over what happened in the 1990s. I won't say that any discussion of Serbia's future must start with this fact -- but any discussion that fails to take notice of it is going to be very flawed.

Phew. Thanks for reading.


Doug M.

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Essays for the New York Times 'Stone' Series